03/10/2026
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‼️SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT‼️
Storms capable of producing TORNADOES 🌪️ (a few may be STRONG – up to EF2), VERY LARGE to GIANT HAIL 🧊 (3.5”+ possible in parts of Texas), and Damaging Winds💨 (74+ mph possible, primarily in Texas).
➡️ SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES (Primary Tornado Corridor)
The greatest tornado threat will likely develop from northern Missouri into northern Illinois and Indiana late this afternoon and evening as a surface low tracks along a frontal boundary. Storms forming along and just south of the warm front may become discrete supercells capable of producing TORNADOES — including STRONG tornadoes 🌪️ (up to EF2).
VERY LARGE HAIL 🧊 (2+ inches) will also be possible with the strongest storms. As the evening progresses, storms should spread east toward southern Michigan and possibly northeast Ohio overnight, with an increasing DAMAGING WIND THREAT 💨 as storms begin to organize.
➡️ SOUTHERN PLAINS (EXTREME HAIL RISK)
Across the Texas Panhandle into western and central Texas, storms are expected to develop along the dryline late this afternoon as a strong upper disturbance moves out of northern Mexico.
Initial discrete supercells could produce VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL 🧊 (potentially 3–3.5”+ in diameter). As storms grow upscale into clusters or a squall line, the threat for DAMAGING WINDS 💨 (74+ mph) will increase through the evening, especially across parts of central Texas.
Additional storms may develop earlier across south-central Texas, where hail and gusty winds will be the main threats.
⏱️ The Timeframe:
• Afternoon: Storm development begins along the Texas dryline and near the MO/IL frontal boundary
• Evening: Supercells capable of tornadoes and very large hail
• Overnight: Storms move east and may organize into lines with damaging winds
⚠️ BOTTOM LINE: Severe storms today could produce STRONG TORNADOES, VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL, and DAMAGING WINDS, especially from Missouri into Illinois and Indiana, while parts of Texas could see extremely large hail and destructive wind gusts with the strongest storms.
⚠️ Have a plan in place today and tonight.
DO NOT SLEEP NAKED. 🌪️