07/05/2021
Influenza Vaccination 2021
A reminder that if you or any of your family would like to have this year’s influenza vaccine, the time to organise this is now.
We are running the last influenza clinic at the Show Ground on 19th May.
This is the same as last year, where you stay in your car and we come to you.
Ring the surgery 67772493 to get a time to arrive.
Might there be a significant influenza outbreak this winter?
• Last year’s numbers between April and September were only 5% of the five-year average and only 0.5% of the previous year’s infections (2019 was the most intense influenza year in Australia since accurate data began).
• So, 2020 was a great year in Australia for only little influenza illness.
• This was aided by a high vaccination coverage (a new record at 18 million) and the public health measures (social distancing, lockdowns – notably the six-month lockdown of Melbourne).
• We may well have another great year, but it is impossible to predict.
• That is because there will be reduced immunity to influenza due to the absent 2020 season together with increasing fatigue with public health measures. If the virus arrives from overseas, influenza activity this winter might be high.
So, in answer to the question above, I don’t know. If you want to decrease the risk, have the needle. Remember, the aim of influenza vaccination is not preventing infection but to maintain functional capacity. You might still get infected, but you won’t get as sick.
A few thoughts about Covid 19 at the time of writing 7th May
• AstraZenica vaccine
Infection prevented in 40-50% of those vaccinated.
Of those that do get infected, 70% after the first needle (by day 12) and 80% after the second needle get no symptoms.
Close to 100% of those that do get infected do not get sick enough to need hospitalisation (and therefore do not die)
It does not work against the South African variant
Clot risk now appears to be somewhere between 1 in 20,000 to 30,000 for those under 50 years and around 1 in 100,000 for those over 50 years, remembering the risk goes down the older one is.
• Covid 19 virus this winter and beyond
The Covid 19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) will continue to arrive in Australia through overseas arrivals.
Whenever our external borders open more freely, the virus will return to Australia in larger numbers.
This coronavirus will never be eradicated in the long term. We will need to learn to live with it.
Covid 19 cases will be minimal this winter in a closed border Australia.
• SARS-CoV-2 Variants
Like all viruses it makes our bodies copy and produce more of it
We get unwell when this is occurring. We spread it to others, so the virus propagates and ‘lives’.
Mistakes are made during this copying process leading to variants.
Some of these variants will outcompete older strains as they will be more infective/spread more easily.
Some of them will also be more dangerous as they will produce more severe disease. Note though, that these variants will not survive in the longer term as they will kill off their hosts (us)
When the spike protein produced by a variant is sufficiently distinct from an earlier variant, it will not be neutralised by antibodies produced by prior vaccines.
Vaccines will evolve and change in the future just as influenza vaccines do.