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Development Analytics, 9 Marlborough Court, Oxford (2026)

27/03/2026

Design of Shock-Responsive Social Protection Programmes

Disasters due to natural hazards, fueled by climate change, are driving millions into poverty annually, causing billions in economic damage and displacing thousands. Shock-responsive social protection schemes are crucial in mitigating these effects.

We have already partnered with various UNICEF offices to estimate shock impacts and cash transfer effectiveness. For countries including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tajikistan, Georgia, St Lucia and Madagascar, our team has led pioneering research providing insights into the benefits of social protection programmes following different types of shocks, including earthquakes, floods and COVID-19.

Our approach doesn't stop at analysis; we're actively engaged in presenting the research through interactive web applications. Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS) empowers stakeholders to explore the impact of shocks at different severity levels and examine the poverty alleviating impact of cash transfer scenarios that can be implemented after the shocks. The users can change the size of cash transfers and their targeting, compare and contrast the scenarios through examining several indicators and refine their decisions based on real-time data insights.

📖 Read more about our recent projects on estimating the impact of shocks and using various cash transfer modalities to alleviate their impact here: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗 Or if you're interested in learning more about conducting a study in your country, click here to register your interest for a meeting, and we will get in touch with you: https://form.jotform.com/241062147859965

17/03/2026

📢 New Study on UNICEF’s work on Care and Support in the MENA Region

The Development Analytics team recently completed a study titled Stocktaking of UNICEF’s Work on Care and Support, including Family-Friendly Policies focusing on the MENA Region, for the UNICEF MENA - يونيسف الشرق الأوسط و شمال إفريقيا Regional Office.

🌍 The study takes stock of UNICEF’s engagement in care and support policies and programmes across the region. Building on the Global Stocktaking Report (Stocktaking of UNICEF’s Work on Care and Support, including Family-Friendly Policies) prepared by DA for UNICEF HQ in 2025, the study first maps the regional care and support landscape and then reviews the wide range of interventions implemented by UNICEF country offices between 2020 and 2024.

📚 The stocktaking exercise underscores both the urgency and the opportunity to strengthen care and support systems across the MENA region. The analysis demonstrates that UNICEF has emerged as a key actor in advancing a more coherent, inclusive, and rights-based care agenda, with country offices increasingly embedding care and support—including family-friendly policies—within their programmes and policy engagement.

📚 Through illustrative case studies from Egypt, Lebanon, and Oman country offices, the study further highlights the breadth and impact of UNICEF’s work in strengthening more equitable, sustainable, and responsive care systems. These examples showcase promising practices ranging from expanding childcare access and introducing disability-inclusive benefits to significant progress in extending maternity and paternity leave provisions.

🤝 As the Development Analytics team, we extend our sincere gratitude to Maha Muna, who led this work on behalf of UNICEF MENA Regional Office, and to Vasumathi Anandan for their collaboration and support throughout the process. We also thank the colleagues from the UNICEF Egypt, UNICEF Lebanon, and UNICEF Oman country offices who contributed to the case studies and shared invaluable insights. We further acknowledge the contributions of our Development Analytics team members, Nazlı Aktakke, Merve Uzunalioglu, PhD, Yali Hajhassan, and Dr Meltem Aran, whose efforts were instrumental in carrying out this work.

🔗To learn more about our work in gender and women’s empowerment, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/gender-and-womens-empowerment

10/03/2026

🎉As DA, we are delighted to congratulate our associate, Dr. Ezgi İrgil, on her new position as Assistant Professor at the Social Sciences Department UC3M.

🌍Dr İrgil’s work lies at the intersection of politics and forced migration, with a particular focus on migration diplomacy and migration management in the Middle East and the European Union, as well as the everyday politics of forced migration.

🎓Before joining UC3M, she was a Postdoctoral Research Fellow within the Global Politics and Security Programme at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. She received her PhD in Political Science from the University of Gothenburg, her MA in International Affairs from George Washington University, and her BA in Political Science and International Relations from Boğaziçi University. She is also a member of EuroMeSCo – the Euro-Mediterranean Research, Dialogue, Advocacy Network – and the IN2PREV Project’s Frontline Practitioners Network.

👏Please join us in congratulating Dr İrgil on this well-deserved achievement and wishing her every success in this exciting new chapter.

🔗To learn more about Dr Ezgi İrgil, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/ezgi-i%CC%87rgil%2C-ph.d.-

04/03/2026

Reframing Work-Life Balance: Understanding the Childcare Gap in Europe

👶 In their 2026 article, “The Childcare Gap in Europe: Probing Policy Constructions of Work-Life Balance and Parental Agency,” Professor Mary Daly and the DA associate Dr Merve Uzunalioğlu offer a rigorous comparative analysis of how European welfare states structure the intersection of employment and early years after childbirth. Published online on 11 February 2026 in the Journal of Family Studies, the paper moves beyond surface discussions of “work-life balance” to interrogate the policy architectures underpinning parenting-related leave and early childhood education and care (ECEC) across 15 European countries.

⚖️ Drawing on Amartya Sen’s capabilities approach, the authors develop a novel framework distinguishing between three constructions of parental agency: relatively autonomous, moderately constrained and heavily constrained. By systematically analysing the design features of leave policies and ECEC systems, and crucially, the intersections between them, they examine the concept of the “childcare gap” as a composite measure of misalignment in policy coverage. Their findings reveal distinct country groupings: Nordic and select Central European countries provide overlapping, well-compensated leave and childcare entitlements that support autonomous agency, while others impose longer gaps, driven by lower compensation or greater trade-offs, thereby constraining parental choice.

📊 Analytically, the article challenges the dominant employment-centred framing of work-life balance, arguing that policy narratives often individualise responsibility while obscuring structural constraints embedded in institutional design. By foregrounding agency and policy configuration rather than outcomes alone, Daly and Uzunalioğlu make a significant theoretical and methodological contribution to comparative family policy research. The paper ultimately calls for more coherent integration of leave and childcare systems to reduce inequities and enable genuinely meaningful choice for parents across Europe.

🔎Dr Merve Uzunalioğlu is a Social Policy Researcher with a focus on work-life reconciliation policies and their societal impacts, fathers' involvement in childcare, and how workplaces could be transformed from enablers to promoters of fathers' parental leave take-up. After completing her PhD in UCL’s Institute of Education, she has been a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Oxford Department of Social Policy and Intervention. Prior to her doctoral studies, she served as a full-time team member at Development Analytics, contributing to various research projects in the realms of early childhood care and education, as well as women's economic and social empowerment.

🔗To learn more about Dr Merve Uzunalioğlu’s work, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/merve-uzunalio%C4%9Flu%2C-ph.d.-

🔗To read the paper, please follow: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13229400.2026.2626691

20/02/2026

The State of the World’s Children 2025

🌍 The newly released The State of the World’s Children 2025 by UNICEF delivers a stark reminder that child poverty remains one of the defining challenges of our time. Today, nearly one in five children worldwide—over 412 million—live in extreme monetary poverty, surviving on less than $3.00 per day. More than 417 million children in low- and middle-income countries experience severe deprivation across essential areas such as education, health, housing, nutrition, sanitation and clean water. Poverty not only undermines children’s rights and well-being; it weakens economic growth, erodes social cohesion and constrains our shared future.

📉 The report also makes clear that progress is achievable. Since 2000, the rate of children living in severe deprivation has fallen by one third, demonstrating that focused policy action yields results. Evidence from countries that have made substantial reductions in child poverty points to five core policy areas that, when combined, create lasting impact: (i) Making child poverty a national priority, (ii) Creating fiscal space and supportive macroeconomic policies, (iii) Expanding inclusive social protection, (iv) Strengthening access to quality public services, and (v) Promoting decent work for caregivers.

Three immediate crisis; climate shocks, rising conflict and funding shortfall now threaten to reverse these gains, with nearly one in five children living in conflict-affected areas in 2024 and climate disruptions impacting at least one in seven children’s education.

⚖️ Ultimately, this is not a question of resources, but of priorities. Many low-income countries spend more on debt servicing than on health or education, while fiscal space continues to narrow. The evidence is clear: linking debt relief to investments in children, expanding shock-responsive social protection, and strengthening climate-resilient services can drive sustainable progress. Ending child poverty in the twenty-first century is within our capacity. The defining question is whether we will act with the urgency and resolve required to ensure every child has a fair chance at a dignified future.
To learn more about the report, please visit: https://www.unicef.org/reports/state-of-worlds-children/2025

💡At Development Analytics, we conduct research and provide analytical support on child poverty measurement and programme design, working with multilateral partners including multiple UNICEF offices to develop robust methodologies that capture both monetary and multidimensional aspects of child poverty. Our work enables evidence-based design of child benefit programmes and tools such as the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS), which helps policymakers and implementers assess and refine policy scenarios aimed at addressing child poverty in diverse country contexts. To learn more about our work related to Tackling Child Poverty, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/tackling-child-poverty

20/01/2026

Developing costed-contingency actions and undertaking an analysis of pre-arranged financing for shock-responsive social protection

🌍 Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of shocks, making shock-responsive social protection (SRSP) more critical than ever. Timely, well-designed cash support can significantly reduce post-shock poverty and vulnerability.

📊 Development Analytics completed a timely study “Developing Costed-Contingency Actions and Analysing Pre-arranged Financing for SRSP” for UNICEF Europe & Central Asia Regional Office, focusing on Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Tajikistan.

💡 Using microsimulation models the study assessed the poverty impacts of floods and the effectiveness of alternative SRSP cash transfer scenarios. Our Interactive Tool (Interactive Social Policy Simulators (ISPS)) enabled dynamic adjustments of parameters (e.g., transfer values, coverage criteria) to support preparedness and facilitate discussion on SRSP planning. The analysis also examined pre-arranged financing options for SRSP emphasising the need for proactive planning.

📚 Key insights from this study are summarised in a summary report that can be accessed here: https://knowledge.unicef.org/ECAR/resource/developing-costed-contingency-actions-and-undertaking-analysis-pre-arranged-financing

📚 A blog post was also prepared by Diana King (UNICEF Europe & Central Asia), which clearly distil the findings and policy implications for SRSP planning. The post can be accessed here: https://socialprotection.org/discover/blog/funding-shock-responsive-social-protection-responses-lessons-developing-contingency

🔗To read more about our recent projects on estimating the impact of shocks and using various cash transfer modalities to alleviate their impact, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗To learn more about the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS), please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/interactive-social-policy-simulator

13/11/2025

We are pleased to share the latest article co-authored by Dr Maria Clara Oliveira, who supports Development Analytics’ mission as an Associate. The article, titled “Crises and Policy Change: Examining the Trajectory of Mozambique’s Cash Transfer Program,” presents a longitudinal analysis of Mozambique’s flagship social protection scheme—originally established as the Food Subsidy Programme (FSP) and later restructured into the Basic Social Subsidy Programme (BSSP). The article contributes to broader debates on social policy change by examining whether—and under what conditions—successive crises have driven reform in Mozambique’s cash transfer architecture over the past three decades.

💡Drawing on a rich historical account and grounded in policy change theory, the authors find that, contrary to conventional assumptions, crises do not consistently trigger meaningful change. While socioeconomic shocks—such as the 2008 food price crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—have occasionally prompted temporary expansions or procedural tweaks, these have not led to durable structural reforms. Even amid mounting poverty, the coverage of the BSSP remains limited, reaching only about 15% of eligible households. Notably, environmental shocks such as Cyclone Idai and the ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, despite their devastating impact, have not been accompanied by systematic program adaptations. The findings challenge the applicability of “crisis as catalyst” theories in low-income, aid-dependent contexts.

🌍The study also underscores the complex role of international actors. While donors have been instrumental in pushing for cash transfer expansion, sometimes bypassing the state budget to fund programs directly—the intended scale-up has often stalled at the implementation stage. This reflects not only capacity constraints but also domestic political choices, as illustrated by government narratives that individualize poverty. The authors call for a more nuanced understanding of the interaction between crises, institutional inertia, donor influence, and state agency. Their work adds critical empirical insights to the literature on welfare trajectories in the Global South and raises important questions about the resilience and adaptability of social protection systems under strain.

📄 To read the full article here: https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2025.2498579

To learn more about Dr Maria Clara Oliveira: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/maria-clara-gabriel-de-oliveira%2C-ph.d.

🔗 Photo Credit: ©UNICEF Mozambique

17/09/2025

🌍 Exciting News from Development Analytics! 🌍

📢Development Analytics is pleased to announce that we have been awarded a Long-Term Agreement (LTA) with the World Food Programme (WFP) for the Provision of Impact Evaluation Services, covering all geographical regions where WFP operates. Through this collaboration, Development Analytics will contribute to WFP’s evidence base and support its vital efforts to improve outcomes for vulnerable populations worldwide.

🌐The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is the world’s largest humanitarian organization saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity.

📊In the complex and diverse contexts within which WFP operates, there is rising demand for evidence of results of WFP policies and programmes. The evaluation function is central to meeting this demand, providing independent assessments of outcomes and impact.

🤝This new agreement with WFP underscores our commitment to delivering rigorous, evidence-based evaluations and research to inform policy and programme design. It also stands alongside our existing Long-Term Agreement with UNICEF on Child Poverty and Social Protection.

🌟We look forward to working with the WFP across regions to generate high-quality insights that contribute to more impactful policies and programmes.

🔗For more details about the LTA please see: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/wfp-lta-announcement

Photo Credit: WFP.

11/08/2025

🌍Costing and designing Early Childhood Education (ECE) service expansion for maximum impact

Investing in ECE is a pivotal strategy for fostering child development that sets children on a path for a more equitable future. With so many available models to expand ECE services, costing different options and assessing which children benefit from each offers invaluable insights for policy making.

In the last decade, we have led various research projects related to ECE and education outcomes, for various organizations, including the World Bank, UNICEF, and Agence Française de Développement (AfD). We have extensive experience in devising simulation models to assess the anticipated impact of social policies and programs on population and child outcomes, along with calculating the total costs associated with such policies. Our experience further extends to devising simulation models specifically tailored for ECE expansion policies.

Our approach doesn't stop at analysis; we are actively engaged in presenting the research through interactive tools. Such tools empowers stakeholders to explore different scenarios, compare and contrast them through examining several indicators and refine their decisions based on real-time data insights.

📖Read more about our projects on estimating the distributional impact and costs of ECE services expansion policies here:

https://www.developmentanalytics.org/designing-and-costing-ece

🤝Or if you're interested in learning more about conducting a study in your country, kindly register your interest to schedule an online meeting and we would be happy to discuss your research needs and how we can support them:

https://form.jotform.com/241124655192958

04/08/2025

📘The World Bank’s new State of Social Protection 2025: The 2-Billion-Person Challenge, published in April 2025, sheds light on both remarkable progress and urgent gaps in global social protection.

🌍Social protection comprises public policies and programs designed to safeguard individuals and families from economic and social hardship, aiming to secure a basic standard of wellbeing for everyone. Core components of social protection—social assistance, social insurance, and labor market programs—support households and workers in navigating crises, alleviating poverty, and pursuing employment opportunities.

📊Over the past decade, low- and middle-income countries have expanded coverage to a record 4.7 billion people—an increase of 10 percentage points between 2010 and 2022. Yet, critical disparities persist: 2 billion people remain uncovered or inadequately protected, including more than 1 billion in Africa and South Asia. In low-income countries, three in four people receive no form of social protection at all.

⚖️ The report emphasizes that coverage alone is not enough. For 400 million people, benefits are too minimal to lift them out of poverty or shield them from shocks. On average, social assistance transfers in low-income countries amount to just 11% of poor households’ income. Gender inequality remains a pressing concern as well, with women receiving only 81 cents for every dollar men receive in benefits. These gaps are most pronounced in fragile, conflict-affected, and hunger-prone regions—precisely where robust safety nets are most needed.

🚀 To close these gaps, the World Bank urges a threefold approach: expand coverage through investments in delivery systems, tailor support to foster long-term self-reliance, and build shock-responsive infrastructure capable of protecting people during crises. At current growth rates, reaching full coverage for the poorest could take up to two decades. However, smarter use of existing resources—such as better targeting of cash transfers—could fund nearly half the effort needed to cover the bottom 20% of the population. The Bank is committed to supporting governments to reach 500 million more people by 2030, with a focus on equity, resilience, and long-term opportunity.

📘 Read the full report:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotection/publication/state-of-social-protection-2025-2-billion-person-challenge

30/07/2025

📢 Deadline Extended: apply by August 25, 2025

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🌐 Development Analytics is excited to announce a new opportunity for aspiring junior professionals in the field of social policy and quantitative data analysis! 🚀

🔍 Position Vacant: Junior Quantitative Analyst

📅 Application deadline: August 25, 2025

We are currently seeking a highly motivated Junior Quantitative Analyst to join our team.

The Junior Quantitative Analyst will be responsible for qualitative and quantitative data management, statistical analysis, data coding, and research support to studies and evaluations conducted by Development Analytics across different thematic areas of poverty, education, labour, social protection, forced migration, and health. She/he will be a core part of the research team. This position is remote and may require travel and staying in the regions where projects are active. Students already pursuing a master’s degree are highly encouraged to apply and be evaluated as an intern.

🔗 For detailed information about the position, including qualifications and application instructions, please visit: https://lnkd.in/dRftb_wi

🔗 To submit your application, please fill out the following form: https://lnkd.in/dn6cgXJT

If you know someone who would be a great fit for this role, tag them in the comments or share this post to spread the word! 🌐

Development Analytics is committed to creating a diverse and inclusive work environment. We encourage individuals of all backgrounds to apply.

27/06/2025

🌍This week, we would like to highlight a new World Bank Policy Research Working Paper: Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters. Published in May 2025, this global study estimates the well-being losses and recovery times resulting from natural disasters in 132 countries—shifting the focus from asset losses alone to a more people-centred understanding of disaster impacts. The findings highlight that each dollar lost in physical assets translates, on average, into well-being losses equivalent to a $2 drop in national consumption, with the poorest bearing the heaviest burden. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses.

📊At the heart of this work is a global microsimulation model that estimates disaster impacts on representative households across income groups. The model captures how losses in income and assets affect consumption and uses an economic utility framework to translate these shocks into well-being impacts.

📝 This study evaluates ten policy options and concludes that socio-economic and financial strategies—such as insurance schemes and social protection—can serve as effective complements to asset-based approaches like improved construction standards. It also finds that interventions aimed at low-income groups tend to deliver greater returns by reducing well-being losses more efficiently per dollar spent.

📉 On a similar note, the Development Analytics team has modelled and estimated the impact of shocks ranging from disasters such as earthquakes and floods to the COVID-19 pandemic for countries including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tajikistan, Georgia, and St Lucia. Following the estimation of the shock’s impact, we further simulate the poverty-mitigating potential of different cash transfer schemes responding to the shocks. By doing this, we support policymakers with an evidence base for fine-tuning social protection interventions, ensuring that they are both responsive and adaptive to the evolving needs of the affected communities. We also utilise our interactive web application, the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS) to showcase these results in an interactive and flexible way.

🔗To read the World Bank working paper: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/ed72d459-6715-435a-ad06-7a3ddc5ff23c

🔗To learn more about our work on Design of Shock-Responsive Social Protection Programmes:
https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗To learn more about the Interactive Social Policy Simulator: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/interactive-social-policy-simulator

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