13/11/2025
We are pleased to share the latest article co-authored by Dr Maria Clara Oliveira, who supports Development Analytics’ mission as an Associate. The article, titled “Crises and Policy Change: Examining the Trajectory of Mozambique’s Cash Transfer Program,” presents a longitudinal analysis of Mozambique’s flagship social protection scheme—originally established as the Food Subsidy Programme (FSP) and later restructured into the Basic Social Subsidy Programme (BSSP). The article contributes to broader debates on social policy change by examining whether—and under what conditions—successive crises have driven reform in Mozambique’s cash transfer architecture over the past three decades.
💡Drawing on a rich historical account and grounded in policy change theory, the authors find that, contrary to conventional assumptions, crises do not consistently trigger meaningful change. While socioeconomic shocks—such as the 2008 food price crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—have occasionally prompted temporary expansions or procedural tweaks, these have not led to durable structural reforms. Even amid mounting poverty, the coverage of the BSSP remains limited, reaching only about 15% of eligible households. Notably, environmental shocks such as Cyclone Idai and the ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, despite their devastating impact, have not been accompanied by systematic program adaptations. The findings challenge the applicability of “crisis as catalyst” theories in low-income, aid-dependent contexts.
🌍The study also underscores the complex role of international actors. While donors have been instrumental in pushing for cash transfer expansion, sometimes bypassing the state budget to fund programs directly—the intended scale-up has often stalled at the implementation stage. This reflects not only capacity constraints but also domestic political choices, as illustrated by government narratives that individualize poverty. The authors call for a more nuanced understanding of the interaction between crises, institutional inertia, donor influence, and state agency. Their work adds critical empirical insights to the literature on welfare trajectories in the Global South and raises important questions about the resilience and adaptability of social protection systems under strain.
📄 To read the full article here: https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2025.2498579
To learn more about Dr Maria Clara Oliveira: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/maria-clara-gabriel-de-oliveira%2C-ph.d.
🔗 Photo Credit: ©UNICEF Mozambique
