19/11/2025
This report provides an update to our 2022 assessment of the risk of mass atrocities (large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations) against Indigenous Papuans in Papua, Indonesia.
As outlined in the 2022 report, the risk of mass atrocities in Papua is based on structural factors—Indonesia’s history of mass violence, political exclusion, and militarization—and immediate drivers of violence, including protests, intra-Papuan divisions, and intensifying armed clashes.
Over the past three years, Papua has undergone significant changes.
The Indonesian government has rapidly expanded the region’s administrative structure, increased the military presence, and revived controversial transmigration and food estate development programs.
Targeted inclusion policies have accelerated the representation of Indigenous Papuans in the military and local government. Despite these developments, the broader Indigenous population remains deeply marginalized, which has fueled Papuan nationalism.
Political expressions of and mobilization around pro-independence sentiment have increased—as evidenced by the steadily rising demonstrations. In response, the Indonesian government has intensified repression and expanded military deployments.
Armed clashes between guerrilla fighters and Indonesian forces have continued, with separatist groups expanding their areas of operation.
As a result, the number of internally displaced persons has risen sharply.
This report is based on research in Indonesia, including in Papua, from October 2024 to March 2025, as well as on consultations with experts outside of Indonesia and a literature review.
https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org/reports/major-developments-and-worsening-risks-for-mass-atrocities-in-papua-indonesia
