24/03/2020
Dear worthy Colleagues,
As per our experiences, observations and assessment in Wuhan, we want to share some key information with you to better understand COVID-19 pandemic and best practices the Chinese government followed which also been officially recognized by WHO. Due to these efforts, there is no new COVID-19 case in Wuhan and Hubei province.
We are sharing this Information to senstize our policy makers, administration, health officials and General public of Pakistan.
1. Key findings are the following:
ii. COVID-19 is a zoonotic virus and bats appear to be reservoir of the disease. However, the intermediate host(s) has not yet been identified.
iii. The virus has features typical of the Coronavirus family and belongs to the Betacoronavirus 2B lineage.
iv. It is neither SARS nor influenza. It is a new virus with its own characteristics. COVID-19 transmission on children appears to be limited compared with influenza.
v. COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close, unprotected contact between an infector and infectee.
vi. From late January to mid of February 2020, fever clinic patients fell from a peak of 500 per day to 50 per day in hospitals of Wuhan.
vii. The median age of the affected patients is 51 years with the majority of the cases aged between 30 and 69. 51.1% are male and 77% are from Hubei.
viii. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be major driver of transmission, based on available evidence.
ix. The fecal-oral route does not appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission.
x. In China, human-to-human transmission is occurring in families. Most clusters (78-85%) have occurred in families.
xi. As COVID-19 is a newly identified pathogen, there is no known pre-existing immunity in humans.
xii. Data on individuals aged 18 years old and under suggests that there is relatively low attack rate in this age group (2.4% of all reported cases). Infected children have largely been identified through contact tracing in households of adults.
2. Key signs and symptoms include:
a. Fever (87.9%)
b. Dry cough (67.7%)
c. Fatigue (38.1%)
d. Sputum production (33.4%)
e. Shortness of breath (18.6%)
f. Sore throat (13.9%)
g. Headache (13.6%)
h. Myalgia or Arthralgia (14.8%)
i. Chills (11.4%)
j. Nausea or vomiting (5%)
k. Nasal congestions (4.8%)
l. Diarrhea (3.7%)
m. Hemoptysis (0.9%)
n. Conjunctival congestion (0.8%)
2.1 Individual at highest risk for severe disease and death include people aged over 60 years and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer.
2.2 The disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild with approximately 2.4% of the total reported cases amongst individuals aged under 19 years.
2.3 Mortality rate increases with age with the highest mortality rate among people over 80 years of age with 13.2% for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2% with diabetes, 8.4% with hypertension, 8% with chronic respiratory disease and 7.6% for cancer.
3.Key elements of the Chinese Response to COVID-19 include the following:
i. Early stage focused on preventing the exportation of cases from Wuhan and other cities of Hubei Province and also importation of cases by other provinces (to control the source of infection, block transmission and prevent further spread).
ii. The second focused on reducing the intensity of the epidemic and slowdown in the increase in cases.
iii. The third stage focused on reducing clustering of cases thoroughly controlling the epidemic and striking a balance between epidemic prevention and control, sustainable economic and social development, unified command, standard guidance and scientific evidence-based policy implementation.
iv. New technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence were applied to strengthen contact-tracing and management of priority population.
4.Assessment:
i. China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. The national approach promoted universal temperature monitoring, masking and hand washing.
ii. Achieving China exceptional coverage and adherence to the containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.
iii. China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this virus has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. The decline in the number of COVID-19 cases across China is real.
iv. With regard to it efforts for returning normalcy to all aspects of life, China is appropriately adopting a science-based phased approach with the clear recognition and readiness of the need to immediately react to any new COVID-19 cases or clusters as key elements of the containment strategy.
5. The fundamental elements of the Chinese policy to contain COVID-19 include the following:
i. Proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases.
ii. Very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation.
iii. Rigorous tracking an quarantine of close contacts.
iv. An exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures (most important).
Major Recommendations
6- Major recommendations to contain COVID-19 include the following:
i. Maintain an appropriate level of emergency management protocols depending upon risk-analysis.
ii. Carefully monitor the phased lifting of the current restriction on movement and public gathering.
iii. Further strengthening the readiness of the emergency management.
iv. Prioritise active, exhaustive case finding and immediate testing and isolation, painstaking contact-tracing and rigorous quarantine of close contacts.
v. Fully educate the general public on the seriousness of COVID-19 and their role in preventing its spread.
vi. True solidarity and collaboration is essential among nations to tackle the common threat.
vii. Rapidly share information as required under the international health regulations.
viii. Recognise the rapidly changing risk profile of COVID-19 affected countries and continually monitor outbreak trends and control capacity to reassess any additional health measures that significantly interfere with international travel and trade.