05/01/2022
Forecast of a new wave of COVID-19 related to the approach of the Omicron strain to Ukraine
http://wdc.org.ua/en/covid19-delta-omicron-spread
In the study conducted by a joint team of scientists of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development of Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute (КПІ ім. Ігоря Сікорського) and the Lev Gromashevsky Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases NAMS of Ukraine, it is noted that the new wave of COVID-19, associated with the Omicron strain is spreading rapidly around the world and moving towards the Eastern region of Europe, including Ukraine.
Given the latest data on the rapid growth of cases in Western Europe and the United States (as of December 29, 2021: Great Britain - 183,037, France - 208,099, Spain - 100,760, Italy - 98,030, United States - 465,670 cases), we can assume faster, compared to Delta, Omicron virus transmission. At the same time, the number of daily deaths in these countries has decreased significantly (57, 184, 78, 136 and 1777 cases, respectively). This suggests that in Ukraine, the next wave of COVID-19, including clinical manifestations of the disease, will be easier than the previous ones.
Analyzing the previous wave of the disease, scientists point out that the highest level of the weekly smoothed curve of new cases of COVID-19 caused by Delta strain occurred in Ukraine on 27.10.2021-02.11.2021 and reached 23,333. In total, about 509 thousand people were ill in those days. When the level of fully vaccinated persons reached 20.2% (November 15, 2021), the incidence wave decreased. And at the end of December 2021, the average incidence per week decreased to 4.5 thousand cases per day. Currently, 31.2% of Ukrainians are fully vaccinated with 2 doses, which gives hope for a further downward trend during the winter holidays and reaching its minimum during the first decade of January 2022 at the level of 3-5 thousand new infected people per day.
At the same time, a variant of the Omicron strain of SARS-CoV-2 virus and H3N2 and B influenza viruses have started circulating in Ukraine. This will affect the incidence rate in the next wave and require differential diagnosis of COVID-19 and influenza. A long-term forecast (100 days ahead) based on the use of a neural network of the "direct perceptron" type was performed to test this hypothesis. The forecast results indicate that during the second decade of January 2022, the next wave of morbidity caused by a variant of the Omicron strain may begin to increase. This wave likely peaks in mid-February 2022 at 23,000 to 25,000 infected people per day. Its gradual decline is projected in March - April 2022. However, the data on official morbidity and mortality will largely depend on the laboratory diagnostics scale and the duration of the next wave - on further vaccination and the volume of anti-epidemic measures that should be taken into account.