12/09/2025
🎯 Below is fairly recent data (2022–2025) showing declines in both U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)/border seizures of Fentanyl and overall drug-overdose deaths in the U.S. That suggests that som**hing is shifting. But interpreting that shift — and linking it specifically to sanctions/tariffs or supply-side crackdowns — remains complex. Below is a breakdown of key data.
🎯 According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), total drug overdose deaths in the U.S. dropped from an estimated 111,029 in 2022 to 107,543 in 2023 — a ~ 3% decrease. This was the first annual drop since 2018.
🎯 Overdose deaths involving opioids (broadly) went from ~84,181 in 2022 to ~81,083 in 2023.
🎯 The following year, 2024, saw a much sharper decrease: provisional data estimate around 80,391 total overdose deaths in 2024, a 26.9% drop from 2023.
📈According to some news-report summaries, overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids (primarily fentanyl) also fell significantly in 2024 compared to 2023.
🎯 What this suggests: The downward shift in overdose deaths — including those linked to fentanyl — after 2022 may indicate that recent public health efforts, changing drug supply dynamics, or enforcement/disruption efforts are having a measurable, positive effect.
🚨 Trends in Fentanyl Seizures at the Border by weight.
FY 2022: ~ 16,022 lbs
FY 2023: ~ 28,458 lbs — a sharp increase from 2022.
FY 2024: ~ 23,688 lbs — a decrease compared to 2023, though still higher than 2022.
FY 2025 (YTD, Jan–some recent month): ~ 6,011 lbs.
🎯 In early 2025, seizure volume reportedly dropped to its lowest since December 2021.
📈A border-update summary for early 2025 (fiscal year beginning October 2024) shows 5,409 lbs seized between October and January — 22% fewer than the same period the prior year.
Additionally: recent reporting indicates a “sustained fall” in the number of monthly interceptions of fentanyl — with some months in early 2025 having the lowest monthly seizure levels in at least three years.
🎯 What this suggests:
The overall amount of fentanyl being intercepted at the border appears to have declined from the 2023 peak — especially along the Mexico border — during 2024 and into 2025. That might point to a reduction in trafficking volume, increased disruption of supply chains, or shifts in trafficking m**hods/ routes. However, seizures are an imperfect proxy for total flow (traffickers can adapt, hide, or use different routes), so a drop in seizures doesn’t guarantee a proportional drop in overall supply.
📈Even with the encouraging numbers, there is lingering uncertainty — about what the data really mean, or whether they reflect long-term progress:
🚨 Seizures likely miss a lot. By definition, seizures reflect only the portion of total trafficking that is intercepted. If traffickers find new routes, switch to different chemicals (precursors), or better conceal shipments, actual supply could remain high even as seizures drop.
🚨 🚨 Illicit supply adapts quickly. As border enforcement or supply-chain bottlenecks intensify, traffickers may shift to new strategies — 🚨🚨 - CARTELS/TRAFFICKERS producing fentanyl-laced pills INSIDE THE U.S.!! And using precursor chemicals; using air cargo, postal mail, maritime routes; or switching to other synthetic opioids. Those may avoid easy detection.
📈Death data lag and are complex. Overdose-death numbers reflect many factors: supply, potency, usage patterns, public-health interventions (naloxone availability, treatment), and social determinants. A drop in deaths doesn’t automatically mean supply dropped — it might reflect better prevention or changing drug habits.
📈Regional variation. National data obscure big differences between states and localities. Some states still saw overdose-death increases even as national numbers fell.
🧩 What the Trends Do (and Don’t) Tell Us — as of 2025
🎯 What looks promising:
The U.S. had its first drop in total drug-overdose deaths in years (2023 vs 2022), and a much larger drop in 2024 vs 2023.
Overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids like fentanyl seem to have declined as part of that broader trend.
Border seizures of fentanyl — especially at the southwest border — have decreased since the 2023 peak.
🧩 We can’t be sure that lower seizure numbers equal significantly lower total supply — trafficking can shift to harder-to-detect m**hods.
It’s difficult to isolate what’s driving the drop in overdose deaths: is it lower supply, safer use, more naloxone, better treatment, demographic shifts, or some combo of all of that?
Synthetic opioids remain a major force in the crisis; even a reduced supply can still produce many tens of thousands of overdoses.
🎯 What It Means — And What to Watch
The recent data — decline in seizures + decline in overdose deaths — provide cautious optimism that supply-side disruption (interdiction, border enforcement, precursor-control efforts) may be contributing to reducing the harm of fentanyl. But it’s not a guarantee. Supply chains and trafficking networks are adaptive; interdiction tends to be reactive; and overdose-death dynamics depend on many variables.
📈 Keep an eye out on how this evolves for these “leading indicator” trends-
Whether border seizure volumes remain low or rebound in future months — especially if traffickers adapt routes.
Whether overdose deaths continue to fall year-over-year, or if they spike again (which could suggest supply re-surge or new synthetic opioids).
📈 Data on purity and composition of seized fentanyl or opioid-related fatalities (example: more precursor-derived fentanyl, more analogs, or shifts to other synthetics).
Shifts in public-health metrics: use of naloxone, access to treatment, overdose reversals, and drug-use patterns (e.g. pill vs powder vs injection, use of analogs).
~ CDC, Reuters
APALD
