04/05/2020
Living with COVID-19 Update- 4/5/20
I have divided this blog into 4 parts:
1-Where we are with COVID-19
2-Recent developments that affect how I think about what is going on.
3-Projections about the near future.
4-What I personally do to reduce my risks of getting ill.
I get multiple questions a day asking for my thoughts and recommendations as the number of cases of COVID-19 are increasing in a ‘dramatic growth’. It is “exponential growth”.
I don’t know how many adults understand the idea of “exponential growth.” It means the growth keeps getting larger over time. For the US, our 1st COVID-19 case was January 19, 2020. Now, 11 weeks later, we have over 300,000 cases positive, and over 8,000 deaths.
As of 4/3/20, we had 1000 deaths/day, and increasing.
The growth of the # of cases seemed to grow slowly at first, but by mid-March, new cases were doubling every few days. As of 4/4/20- the # of positive cases in the US was over 300,000, and over 8,000 deaths. It won’t be long before there are over 1 million cases diagnosed in the US.
Overall, the death rate is ‘lagging’ a few weeks behind the # of cases being diagnosed. In the US, about 5% of COVID-19 positive patients are dying.
Worldwide there are more than 1 million positive cases and growing ‘very rapidly’.
American Projections:
As of early April, the Federal government was projecting 100,000-240,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US. Please be aware- Those are the ‘best case scenario” estimates from the CDC.
Based on CDC projections as of 3/13/20 if ‘things “go well”:
160 million patients will test positive for Covid-19, and 160,000 people will die.
The “worst case scenario” could be: 214 million infected, and 1.7 million Americans dead, with an epidemic lasting up to 1 year. As a country, we are not doing all that could be done to decrease the death rate from COVID-19.
Personally, I expect the growth rate for new cases, and new deaths will continue to climb ‘exponentially’ for at least 3-4 weeks, and possibly for a few months.
New tests, new equipment, new treatments will continue to be announced- but I doubt it will do much to slow the growth rate of cases, and deaths in the next 4 weeks.
2) Things that affect my COVID thinking; Recent clinical information.
In one study in a village in northern Italy, around 50% of the people who tested positive had no symptoms. In one study, of people who become ill, the virus had been actively spreading for 1-3 days before they became ill. But some people can share the virus and never show symptoms.
As a country, and worldwide, we have absolutely no idea how many positive COVID cases there are right now. We don’t know how many positive cases will have no symptoms.
One study in China showed about 20% of patients who were positive ended up in the hospital.
About 1/3 of those who were admitted to hospital ended up in the ICU- critically ill.
In the US 95% of positive cases have been “mild”, and 5% were hospitalized. However, these tests have only been done on patients who have significant symptoms. In a regional hospital, as of early April, 27% of patients who were positive were admitted to hospital. Of those admitted to the hospital, 16% have died.
-Some urban areas are running out of hospital ICU beds.
-In New York City, the funeral homes are reaching capacity. Funerals are not occurring, and the bodies are ‘stacking up’. Emergency plans are being implemented.
-FEMA has asked for 100,000 body bags.
3) Health Risks for dying from COVID-19
Info from New Orleans and other areas has found that people who are obese, diabetic, hypertensive, or have heart or lung disease are much more likely to die.
New Orleans has a death rate 7 times that of New York, and 10 times that of Seattle. Over 97% of people in Louisiana who have died from COVID-19 had a ‘pre-existing condition’.
New Orleans has one of the highest percentage of patients with chronic illness.
Reports has shown that people of all ages get COVID-19, and patients get admitted to hospital in all age categories. No age group is ‘safe’.
What am I trying to do to stay alive, and stay safe?
-In our office, we are still seeing patients. We try to do as much care as we can ‘remotely’.
However, if a patient needs to be seen, we are still seeing patients. But, if someone is high risk for COVID-19 infection- We are referring our patients to Sparrow, for COVID-19 Triage and management.
(We need to keep our staff safe. We don’t have all the PPE (Personal Protective Equipment that an urgent care or ER has. & and we cannot do COVID-19 testing in our office).
-We started wearing masks, goggles and ‘protective clothing at the office in mid-March.
I have gone back to wearing a ‘white doctor’s coat’- as an external gown. I am also wearing surgical scrubs if I am seeing a patient- and wash the pants and coat daily.
And what do I do personally do ‘beyond the basics”?
-I believe that surviving COVID-19 is a matter of decreasing our risks, in multiple ways and as much as we can. Please look at my previous health blogs for specific recommendations:
-I wear a mask at work, in stores, and anytime I am around others.
-I do hypertonic nasal and throat irrigation multiple times/day.
-I have turned up the heat and humidity at my office and at my home.
-I am wearing gloves if I am in a store or business, or around others.
-I use hand sanitizer when I am coming out of a store.
-I try to hold my breath and turn away if I hear someone coughing or sneezing near me.
It may seem like a strange idea- but good science from my friend and colleague Eric Peper, PhD- His blog is a:
[ https://peperperspective.com/2020/04/01/change-your-breathing-pattern-to-reduce-coronavirus-exposure/ ]
The basic recommendations are well known. They include:
-Practice social distancing of at least six feet at all times!
-Wash your hands frequently
-Cover your mouth when cough
-Stay home if you’re sick
-Practice good hand hygiene avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth
-Avoid close contact with people who are sick
-Clean and disinfect frequently used surfaces daily
-Wear a mask if you are near others. (new as of 4/3/20, but I have been wearing a mask in my office and if I am in any store since mid-March.)
This blog is based upon our breathing research that began in the 1990s, This research helped identify dysfunctional breathing patterns that could contribute to illness. We developed coaching/teac…