Equi-Source

03/25/2026

THE winningest barrel horse stallion of all time only won about 0.03 cents per mile at rodeos vs $1.25 per mile during his futurity year.

While this may be a little deflating for anyone other than Tricia and Adios Pantalones, it’s not always about the bottom line. Sometimes is the “white in his knuckles, and the gold in his buckle.” 😉

As I put $385 bucks in my fuel tank to hopefully make it to Austin and back…. 😅 wanted to share a little perspective with yall.

A good rodeo is so FUN! The perfs, the committees, etc. but also there are a lot of sketchy ones. It’s a lot of livin’ and learnin’ out there.

I want to preface this by saying I’m hauling a “winner” meaning I have a chance to win or place every time I unload, unless I do something stupid myself. 😆

As a Futurity horse, Adios averaged $25,000 a weekend. He won 10 futurities. I bet I put 20,000 miles on my truck.

In rodeo, he averaged $2,000 a run. He won 10 rodeos and multiple random go round wins. I went 65,000 miles on two pickups, and double the runs.

I entered *TWO* Derby’s and won 22% of what I won at 60 rodeos lol

At the finals, he averaged $24,500 per run. Obviously that’s not guaranteed, as he won the most of any barrel horse there this past year.

It *COST* me over $70,000 all in at the finals, staying in Vegas two weeks+ with crew, etc. Could I have done that cheaper? Yes, I could have stayed in the free room 30+ min from my horse. I could have not rented a car, etc. I saved $4,000 by having to stay on site. But that also will wear on your mental game not being comfortable.

Now, when you Futurity, it’s typically one or two shows per month. You go; move in once, get a hookup, get in the pen, etc.

At the rodeo… you’re lucky if you are in one place more than a few days at best. Most places are a hike, it’s not abnormal to drive 4-12 hours between places. That means every few days you need a place to stay, a bunch have overnight fees, so think about how much people complain about weekend show barn fees, and now do that 3-4x a week. New bedding, hay/feed on the road. Etc.

You also need everything and the kitchen sink, because you need to be 100% *reliable yourself* no one is coming to save you and if they do… it costs a bunch. Lol.

Last year, I had a minimum 4 horses in training with outside trainers. Today, I have 11 horses in training. 🙈 (Hello! 👋🏻 my name is Tricia, and I have a problem.) I have 5 to ride myself right now. I can do a lot of things… make more time to run a business isn’t one of them. 😆 The goals and dreams don’t stop because I’m not home.

While I’m gone, I have to rely on my crew at home. Thank goodness it’s a good one, or I would not be able to leave at all. We have mares getting bred, phone calls to answer, supplements to ship, etc.

It is a well oiled machine. Incredible logistics… and not cheap.

03/16/2026

Updated our Roping horse database. This is for team roping, tie-down roping and breakaway roping combined.

We use basic and advanced statistics along with predictive analysis to rank stallions using a proprietary algorithm called the EquiSource Score, which incorporates multiple variables derived from real-time competition results.

There are four independent coefficients in every horse’s pedigree: sire, dam’s sire, 2nd dam’s sire, and 3rd dam’s sire. These variables determine the dependent variable—placing in the top 10% of competition.

These are the top 5 stallions in the Sire Index:
1. Woody Be Tuff
2. Bet Hesa Cat (6666 Ranch)
3. Metallic Cat
4. Hickory Holly Time
5. Once in a Blu Boon

03/06/2026

𝗕𝗮𝗱 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮=𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗟𝗧𝗘 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘆 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲

In the equine industry, we traditionally rank stallions by 𝗟𝗶𝗳𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 (𝗟𝗧𝗘)) or 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘆 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 (𝗣𝗘).

❌ But here’s the problem: 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴.

If the 𝗡𝗙𝗟 ranked quarterbacks purely by 𝘁𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘆𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, the list would be completely wrong.

❓Why❓

➡️ 𝗕𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀.

And it’s the same for creating successful nicks.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗶𝘀: 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗮 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 EquiSource 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲.

My stallion ranking algorithm is an index score that adjusts for several biases that can distort earnings numbers. ⬇️

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𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁

𝗥𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: When an amateur produces top-tier results, it often indicates 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗳 compared to a professional. Because of that, dollars earned by amateurs are weighted heavier than a pro.

𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀: Horses can be strategically entered in events that maximize payouts rather than difficulty. The EquiSource score normalizes this.

𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀

𝗦𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Side pots and incentives can dramatically increase a horse’s earnings, but those payouts are often 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲𝘀 or specific programs.

Because these payouts are heavily dependent on 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, they introduce a major bias. The algorithm adjusts for that.

𝗔𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀: Not every event pays an 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸, which creates another distortion in earnings-based rankings.

Average money and go-round money are treated 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 to account for the structural differences in how events pay out.

𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀

𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘆: Stallions with more offspring naturally have more chances to produce winners, so stallions with larger books don’t automatically appear stronger.

𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆

𝗨𝗻𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘆: A stallion producing 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 is far more valuable than one producing a single unicorn.

𝗔𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

𝟰 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 which is placing in the top 25% of competition.

Each stallion is indexed based on where they appear in the pedigree:

✅ Sire
✅ Dam’s Sire
✅ 2nd Dam’s Sire
✅ 3rd Dam’s Sire

Because 𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀.

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So instead of asking: “𝗪𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗟𝗧𝗘 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗘?”

My algorithm asks a much more important question: “𝗪𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲 𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲𝘀?”

Because in the end, we’re not breeding for 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱𝘀.

We’re breeding for 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲.

02/17/2026

Prayers to Ivy Hurst. We have donated $450 worth of breeding reports to help support the cause!

Item # 4

4. 3 reports from Equi-Source ($450 value) donated from Brittany Holy

01/28/2026

Congratulations to Molli Montgomery!

She just won $92,360 at the ALOHA ACRES Put Up or Shut Up and improved her time by 3 tenths from day 1 on two different horses, full siblings!

Round 1 Futurity: 1st, 2nd and 4th
Round 2 Futurity: 1st and 6th (she 2D’d herself)
Futurity Average: 1st and 2nd
Futurity Slot Race: 1st and 2nd

“You have to have the owners on your side, the horse on your side and God on your side with everythingas tough as it is to win these days. The stars have to align to make those perfect runs like that.” ~ Molli Montgomery on winning the Put Up Or Shut Up High Stakes Futurity & Slot Race

https://www.barrelracingreport.com/issues/1_27_26_BarrelRacingReport_HighRes.pdf

National Western Stock Show | The Women's Professional Rodeo Association | ALOHA ACRES | South East Florida Barrel Racers - SEFBR | Xtreme Million | OutLaw Barrel Races | Sonoran Barrel Racing

01/01/2026

Happy New Year’s and happy birthday to all those “January” babies 😂🙈

12/25/2025

May the…statistics…be ever in your favor. 😉

12/14/2025

𝗔𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 National Finals Rodeo, 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲. 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆.

This world title wasn’t decided by one dominant performance or one standout run. It was decided by 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗼𝗴𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿.

That might sound counterintuitive, but when you step back and look at 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟭𝟱 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝟭𝟬 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀, that’s exactly what the data shows.

Here’s what actually mattered:

📊 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟭𝟱 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱

🔹Only 𝟲.𝟳% of all runs at this NFR were truly fast (14.50.

In other words, the Finals were shaped far more by:
✅ Avoiding big mistakes
✅ Staying in the 𝟭𝟯.𝟱𝟬–𝟭𝟰.𝟬𝟬 window
✅ Letting others give money away than by outright speed.

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𝗛𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲

Riders who stayed on 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 generally showed:
🔹Tighter time distributions
🔹Higher percentages of runs under 14.00
🔹Fewer extreme penalty outcomes
🔹More upward movement late in the standings

Riders who rotated 𝟮–𝟯 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲𝘀 showed:
🔹Wider spreads across time categories
🔹Higher exposure to >14.50 or NT
🔹More volatility round to round

This does NOT imply causation but it does show a strong 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 in this setup.

⸻

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿

Penalties earlier in the Finals had far less impact than penalties late.

Mistakes in 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝟴–𝟭𝟬 had outsized consequences because:
✅ Round money is compressed at the top
✅ Average placement was already tight
✅ One miss could remove 𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 via average payouts

This is where variance (not ability) separated placements.

𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱-𝗯𝘆-𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗿

When you look at when penalties and fast runs actually occurred:

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟯 had the 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘁𝘆 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲
→ 66.7% of runs were >14.50 or No Time (10 runs)

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰 had the 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝘀
→ 73.3% landed in the 13.50–14.15 window (11 runs)

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟲 produced the 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀
→ 20.0% of runs were under 13.50 (3 runs)

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝟭 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟴 had 𝘇𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝘀
→ No sub-13.50 times at all

This matters because it shows 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱, and riders were rewarded or punished based on when variance hit.

🧮 𝗦𝗼 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 Patricia Lee 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝟭𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝗻𝗱?

Any one of the following would likely have flipped the outcome:

1️⃣ 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿

That likely drops her out of Top-8 average money, removing $23k–$94k from the final total. That alone is enough to flip 1st and 2nd.

2️⃣ 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲-𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘂𝗽𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝟭𝟬 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝗻𝗱.

That single placement change adds roughly $25k–$30k, which forces the average payout to decide 1st instead of locking it.

3️⃣ 𝗔 𝗼𝗻𝗲-𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲

The average didn’t need to flip entirely.

Even:
🔹Tricia moving up 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁, or
🔹The leader dropping 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁

Changes payouts by $15k–$30k, enough to reverse the final order.

🎯 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆
Because of how the NFR payout structure works, world title wasn’t decided by who was the best rider or had the best horse. It was decided by:

✅ Variance management
✅ When mistakes actually happened
✅ How the average money stayed intact

And it’s why looking at the 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁, not just the final standings, tells the real story.

12/14/2025

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟵:

After her Round 8 win, Tricia had done exactly what she needed to do — she took a big check, climbed into the average money, and kept the world title conversation alive heading into the final two rounds.

📈 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟵:

Round 9 didn’t deliver another swing — but it did not shut the door either.

Here’s what changed:

🔹 Tricia picked up another check ($9,462.70)
Consistency still matters this late.

🔹 Kassie finished behind Tricia in the round
Tricia closed the gap by ~$3,500 just on Round 9 alone.

🔹 Tricia held 4th in the average
She remains firmly in average money heading into the final round — which is critical.

🔹 Carlee Otero won the round
That win moved Carlee further up the world standings and officially puts her back into the late-game conversation.

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄, 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘃𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼:

1️⃣ 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 This is still the biggest lever. Kassie remains 1st in the average, but any mistake in the final round changes everything. Kassie is the undeniable G.O.A.T too by the way

2️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸 One more strong check in Round 10
🔸 Ideally a Top-3 finish
🔸 Stay inside the Top 4 of the average (currently 4th)

At this point, the final round + average payout are what decide everything.

🎯 𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘

Round 9 wasn’t the explosion everyone hoped for but it kept Tricia alive.
She stayed consistent, stayed in average money, and continued chipping away at the deficit where she could. Shaprening that axe as she says.

Now it comes down to one run and one average payout.

That’s exactly what makes the NFR the NFR. 🏆

12/13/2025

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟴:

After Round 7, Tricia had finally stabilized the math. She rebounded in the average, closed multiple gaps in the world standings, and kept herself mathematically alive — but she still needed a true swing round to reopen the door.

📈 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟴:

Round 8 was exactly that swing.

Here’s what changed:

🔹 Tricia WON the round for $36,668, the biggest possible check

🔹 She closed the gap on Kassie by another ~$21,000 (Kassie finished 4th while Tricia won)

🔹 She extended her lead over Emily Beisel and added $36,668 more separation

🔹 She widened the gap on Carlee Otero by $36,668, who did not place

🔹 She moved up to 4th in the average, putting herself squarely into average money

🔹 She is now only:
~2 seconds behind Brittany for 3rd
~4.75 seconds behind Julie for 2nd

This matters because average money is the only realistic way to swing the world title at this point.

❓ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴: “𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱?”

Short answer: 𝗬𝗲𝘀 — 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝘀 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰.

Here’s the math:

🔹 Right now, Kassie is ahead by about $65,800

🔹 If Kassie earns $0 over the next two rounds and Tricia wins both rounds, Tricia passes Kassie on round money alone — even before average money is paid

🔹 If Tricia runs fast but finishes 2nd both nights, she would still be about $7,800 short before the average — meaning average money becomes the deciding factor

🔹 If Kassie runs two 0.00s, she almost certainly:
-earns no round money, and
-likely falls out of the Top 8 in the average, forfeiting average money entirely

Meanwhile, Tricia is currently 4th in the average and in position to earn a meaningful average check.

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄, 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘃𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼:

1️⃣ 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲

Two mistakes removes Kassie from average money — this is the biggest swing in the entire equation.

2️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱

Winning Round 8 took money away from Kassie, Brittany, and Julie while adding separation from Emily and Carlee.

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸 2 big checks in the final two rounds (improvement from previous rounds)
🔸 Ideally one more round win
🔸 Stay inside the Top 4 of the average (Top 3 pays $60,324+)

That combination is the only remaining door.

🎯 𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘

Is it likely? No.
Is it clean, simple, and mathematically possible? Yes.

Round 8 proved something important:
Tricia can still take money away from the people in front of her while climbing into average money.

At this point, the world title won’t be decided by vibes or opinions….it will be decided by two runs and one average payout.

And that’s exactly why we watch the NFR. 🏆

12/11/2025

𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟳:

Her path tightened even more after Round 6.
Kassie won the round, Hailey picked up another check, and Tricia dropped to 6th in the average turning an already narrow window into a razor-thin margin.

📈 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟳:

Round 7 was a BIG rebound for Tricia and kept the world title dream mathematically alive.

Here’s what changed:

🔹She moved ahead of Emily Beisel in the world standings by $82

🔹She closed the gap on Carlee Otero and is behind her by only $697

🔹And she is ONLY 0.01 seconds behind Hailey in the average. This is MASSIVE because average money is what actually swings world titles.

Here’s the new, mathematically viable scenario:

1️⃣ 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲.

2️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸2 round wins (improvement from previous rounds)
🔸 Consistent Top-3 finishes to tighten up the average (new milestone)
🔸 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝟯 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 to earn $60,324+ (same as R6)

🎯 𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘
Winning the world is still a long shot but Round 7 proved it is absolutely still mathematically possible. Momentum shifted in her favor tonight.

12/10/2025

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟱:

Tricia’s path was difficult but very viable.

📉 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟱:

To see a more detailed explanation, review my post from yesterday. Tricia’s chances narrowed but remain mathematically alive if she does the following:

1️⃣ 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗻 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗥𝟲 𝗼𝗻𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱– This is non-negotiable

2️⃣ 𝗢𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗥𝟲–𝗥𝟭𝟬 + 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲: see spreadsheet screenshot (deficits)

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸3 round wins (same as R4)
🔸2–3 checks in the Top 4 (improvement from R4)
✅ A 1st or 2nd in the average. (Already completed)

🔍 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝗧𝗼 𝗗𝗼 𝘃𝘀. 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝗰𝗸

𝘃𝘀. 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗲𝗲 𝗢𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗼

Carlee is no longer an easy pass — she moved from +$2,472 ahead of Tricia to +$29,677 after her round win. Carlee isn’t currently a big factor in the average, so her danger is round wins.

For Tricia to beat her, she needs to:
🔸Match or beat Carlee in the checks from here on
🔸Keep Carlee from hitting another big win or series of top-2 finishes.

𝘃𝘀. 𝗛𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝘆 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗹

For Tricia to beat her, she has to:
🔸Out-earn Hailey by ~$55,000 from here on
🔸Finish ahead of her in the average.

𝘃𝘀. 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝘇𝘇𝗶-𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗼𝘇𝘇𝗶

Tricia needs to:
🔸Out-earn Brittany by roughly $40k over the last 5 rounds + average
🔸Stay ahead of her in the average race.

𝘃𝘀. 𝗘𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗲𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗹

For Tricia to stay ahead of her in the world-title race, she just needs to:
🔸Beat Emily solidly in the average
🔸Prevent Emily from going on a late multi-win heater.

Lisa: Not a world-title threat since she is far behind in the average → almost no path to a big $94k or $76k check which protects Tricia.