Equi-Source

12/14/2025

𝗔𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 National Finals Rodeo, 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲. 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆.

This world title wasn’t decided by one dominant performance or one standout run. It was decided by 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗼𝗴𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿.

That might sound counterintuitive, but when you step back and look at 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟭𝟱 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝟭𝟬 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀, that’s exactly what the data shows.

Here’s what actually mattered:

📊 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟭𝟱 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱

🔹Only 𝟲.𝟳% of all runs at this NFR were truly fast (14.50.

In other words, the Finals were shaped far more by:
✅ Avoiding big mistakes
✅ Staying in the 𝟭𝟯.𝟱𝟬–𝟭𝟰.𝟬𝟬 window
✅ Letting others give money away than by outright speed.

———

𝗛𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲

Riders who stayed on 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲 generally showed:
🔹Tighter time distributions
🔹Higher percentages of runs under 14.00
🔹Fewer extreme penalty outcomes
🔹More upward movement late in the standings

Riders who rotated 𝟮–𝟯 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲𝘀 showed:
🔹Wider spreads across time categories
🔹Higher exposure to >14.50 or NT
🔹More volatility round to round

This does NOT imply causation but it does show a strong 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 in this setup.

⸻

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿

Penalties earlier in the Finals had far less impact than penalties late.

Mistakes in 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝟴–𝟭𝟬 had outsized consequences because:
✅ Round money is compressed at the top
✅ Average placement was already tight
✅ One miss could remove 𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 via average payouts

This is where variance (not ability) separated placements.

𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱-𝗯𝘆-𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗿

When you look at when penalties and fast runs actually occurred:

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟯 had the 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘁𝘆 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲
→ 66.7% of runs were >14.50 or No Time (10 runs)

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰 had the 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝘀
→ 73.3% landed in the 13.50–14.15 window (11 runs)

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟲 produced the 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀
→ 20.0% of runs were under 13.50 (3 runs)

🔹 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝟭 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟴 had 𝘇𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝘀
→ No sub-13.50 times at all

This matters because it shows 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱, and riders were rewarded or punished based on when variance hit.

🧮 𝗦𝗼 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 Patricia Lee 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝟭𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝗻𝗱?

Any one of the following would likely have flipped the outcome:

1️⃣ 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿

That likely drops her out of Top-8 average money, removing $23k–$94k from the final total. That alone is enough to flip 1st and 2nd.

2️⃣ 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲-𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘂𝗽𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝟭𝟬 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝗻𝗱.

That single placement change adds roughly $25k–$30k, which forces the average payout to decide 1st instead of locking it.

3️⃣ 𝗔 𝗼𝗻𝗲-𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲

The average didn’t need to flip entirely.

Even:
🔹Tricia moving up 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁, or
🔹The leader dropping 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁

Changes payouts by $15k–$30k, enough to reverse the final order.

🎯 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆
Because of how the NFR payout structure works, world title wasn’t decided by who was the best rider or had the best horse. It was decided by:

✅ Variance management
✅ When mistakes actually happened
✅ How the average money stayed intact

And it’s why looking at the 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁, not just the final standings, tells the real story.

12/14/2025

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟵:

After her Round 8 win, Tricia had done exactly what she needed to do — she took a big check, climbed into the average money, and kept the world title conversation alive heading into the final two rounds.

📈 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟵:

Round 9 didn’t deliver another swing — but it did not shut the door either.

Here’s what changed:

🔹 Tricia picked up another check ($9,462.70)
Consistency still matters this late.

🔹 Kassie finished behind Tricia in the round
Tricia closed the gap by ~$3,500 just on Round 9 alone.

🔹 Tricia held 4th in the average
She remains firmly in average money heading into the final round — which is critical.

🔹 Carlee Otero won the round
That win moved Carlee further up the world standings and officially puts her back into the late-game conversation.

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄, 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘃𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼:

1️⃣ 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 This is still the biggest lever. Kassie remains 1st in the average, but any mistake in the final round changes everything. Kassie is the undeniable G.O.A.T too by the way

2️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸 One more strong check in Round 10
🔸 Ideally a Top-3 finish
🔸 Stay inside the Top 4 of the average (currently 4th)

At this point, the final round + average payout are what decide everything.

🎯 𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘

Round 9 wasn’t the explosion everyone hoped for but it kept Tricia alive.
She stayed consistent, stayed in average money, and continued chipping away at the deficit where she could. Shaprening that axe as she says.

Now it comes down to one run and one average payout.

That’s exactly what makes the NFR the NFR. 🏆

12/13/2025

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟴:

After Round 7, Tricia had finally stabilized the math. She rebounded in the average, closed multiple gaps in the world standings, and kept herself mathematically alive — but she still needed a true swing round to reopen the door.

📈 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟴:

Round 8 was exactly that swing.

Here’s what changed:

🔹 Tricia WON the round for $36,668, the biggest possible check

🔹 She closed the gap on Kassie by another ~$21,000 (Kassie finished 4th while Tricia won)

🔹 She extended her lead over Emily Beisel and added $36,668 more separation

🔹 She widened the gap on Carlee Otero by $36,668, who did not place

🔹 She moved up to 4th in the average, putting herself squarely into average money

🔹 She is now only:
~2 seconds behind Brittany for 3rd
~4.75 seconds behind Julie for 2nd

This matters because average money is the only realistic way to swing the world title at this point.

❓ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴: “𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱?”

Short answer: 𝗬𝗲𝘀 — 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝘀 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰.

Here’s the math:

🔹 Right now, Kassie is ahead by about $65,800

🔹 If Kassie earns $0 over the next two rounds and Tricia wins both rounds, Tricia passes Kassie on round money alone — even before average money is paid

🔹 If Tricia runs fast but finishes 2nd both nights, she would still be about $7,800 short before the average — meaning average money becomes the deciding factor

🔹 If Kassie runs two 0.00s, she almost certainly:
-earns no round money, and
-likely falls out of the Top 8 in the average, forfeiting average money entirely

Meanwhile, Tricia is currently 4th in the average and in position to earn a meaningful average check.

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄, 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘃𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼:

1️⃣ 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲

Two mistakes removes Kassie from average money — this is the biggest swing in the entire equation.

2️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱

Winning Round 8 took money away from Kassie, Brittany, and Julie while adding separation from Emily and Carlee.

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸 2 big checks in the final two rounds (improvement from previous rounds)
🔸 Ideally one more round win
🔸 Stay inside the Top 4 of the average (Top 3 pays $60,324+)

That combination is the only remaining door.

🎯 𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘

Is it likely? No.
Is it clean, simple, and mathematically possible? Yes.

Round 8 proved something important:
Tricia can still take money away from the people in front of her while climbing into average money.

At this point, the world title won’t be decided by vibes or opinions….it will be decided by two runs and one average payout.

And that’s exactly why we watch the NFR. 🏆

12/11/2025

𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟳:

Her path tightened even more after Round 6.
Kassie won the round, Hailey picked up another check, and Tricia dropped to 6th in the average turning an already narrow window into a razor-thin margin.

📈 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟳:

Round 7 was a BIG rebound for Tricia and kept the world title dream mathematically alive.

Here’s what changed:

🔹She moved ahead of Emily Beisel in the world standings by $82

🔹She closed the gap on Carlee Otero and is behind her by only $697

🔹And she is ONLY 0.01 seconds behind Hailey in the average. This is MASSIVE because average money is what actually swings world titles.

Here’s the new, mathematically viable scenario:

1️⃣ 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲.

2️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸2 round wins (improvement from previous rounds)
🔸 Consistent Top-3 finishes to tighten up the average (new milestone)
🔸 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝟯 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 to earn $60,324+ (same as R6)

🎯 𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘
Winning the world is still a long shot but Round 7 proved it is absolutely still mathematically possible. Momentum shifted in her favor tonight.

12/10/2025

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Again, this is from the perspective of Tricia, because she is a personal friend and does NOT diminish anyone else’s success.

📉 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟱:

Tricia’s path was difficult but very viable.

📉 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟱:

To see a more detailed explanation, review my post from yesterday. Tricia’s chances narrowed but remain mathematically alive if she does the following:

1️⃣ 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗻 𝗞𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗥𝟲 𝗼𝗻𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱– This is non-negotiable

2️⃣ 𝗢𝘂𝘁-𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗥𝟲–𝗥𝟭𝟬 + 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲: see spreadsheet screenshot (deficits)

3️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:
🔸3 round wins (same as R4)
🔸2–3 checks in the Top 4 (improvement from R4)
✅ A 1st or 2nd in the average. (Already completed)

🔍 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝗧𝗼 𝗗𝗼 𝘃𝘀. 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝗰𝗸

𝘃𝘀. 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗲𝗲 𝗢𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗼

Carlee is no longer an easy pass — she moved from +$2,472 ahead of Tricia to +$29,677 after her round win. Carlee isn’t currently a big factor in the average, so her danger is round wins.

For Tricia to beat her, she needs to:
🔸Match or beat Carlee in the checks from here on
🔸Keep Carlee from hitting another big win or series of top-2 finishes.

𝘃𝘀. 𝗛𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝘆 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗹

For Tricia to beat her, she has to:
🔸Out-earn Hailey by ~$55,000 from here on
🔸Finish ahead of her in the average.

𝘃𝘀. 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝘇𝘇𝗶-𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗼𝘇𝘇𝗶

Tricia needs to:
🔸Out-earn Brittany by roughly $40k over the last 5 rounds + average
🔸Stay ahead of her in the average race.

𝘃𝘀. 𝗘𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗲𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗹

For Tricia to stay ahead of her in the world-title race, she just needs to:
🔸Beat Emily solidly in the average
🔸Prevent Emily from going on a late multi-win heater.

Lisa: Not a world-title threat since she is far behind in the average → almost no path to a big $94k or $76k check which protects Tricia.

12/08/2025

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮 𝗔𝗹𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 📊

Everyone keeps asking if Tricia can still win the world… so here’s the 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙝-𝙗𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙣𝙨𝙬𝙚𝙧: 𝗬𝗘𝗦 — 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻.

Going into Round 5, Tricia sits 𝟲𝘁𝗵 with $𝟮𝟭𝟮,𝟲𝟴𝟵.𝟵𝟬, trailing the #1 spot by $𝟲𝟲,𝟵𝟵𝟰.𝟬𝟯.

To become 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗶𝗼𝗻, she must finish the NFR with 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 than 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙛𝙞𝙫𝙚 riders currently ahead of her.

💪 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗜𝗔 𝗠𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗗𝗢 (𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝟱–𝟭𝟬)

Here is a 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵 that mathematically puts Tricia on top:

𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀

From here (Rounds 5–10):

✅ 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 (1st = $94,035.54)
✅ 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝟯 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀
✅ 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝟮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝟯 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀

🚫 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗢𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗠𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗗𝗢

These are 𝙨𝙪𝙛𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙩 conditions for Tricia’s scenario — meaning this is one set of outcomes that gets her the buckle. (Not the ONLY set, just one clear path.)

⸻

𝗞𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗘 𝗠𝗢𝗪𝗥𝗬 — 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 $𝟮𝟳𝟵,𝟲𝟴𝟯.𝟵𝟯

To stay behind Tricia’s projected ~$503,668:

🔸 Kassie must win 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 ~$𝟮𝟮𝟯,𝟵𝟴𝟰 from here.

A perfectly realistic example:
❌ 𝗡𝗼 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 (hits a barrel or drops out of Top 8 in the average)
⭐ She can STILL finish 𝟮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝟲 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆: Kassie does NOT need to “bomb.” She just has to miss the average. Tricia can outrun her mathematically even if Kassie stacks six 2nd-place rounds.

———

𝗛𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗘𝗬 𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗟 & 𝗕𝗥𝗜𝗧𝗧𝗔𝗡𝗬 𝗣𝗢𝗭𝗭𝗜 𝗧𝗢𝗡𝗢𝗭𝗭𝗜 (𝗕𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟮𝟲𝟮,𝟬𝟬𝟬)

To stay behind Tricia’s $503k outcome:

✅ They can:
🔸win 𝘂𝗽 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 $𝟮𝟰𝟬𝗸–$𝟮𝟰𝟱𝗸 from here

❌ But they cannot:
🔸Win the Average over Tricia
🔸Stack multiple round wins + a big average check

As long as they don’t go on a heater, Tricia passes both.

———

𝗘𝗠𝗜𝗟𝗬 𝗕𝗘𝗜𝗦𝗘𝗟 — 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 $𝟮𝟱𝟭,𝟬𝟱𝟬

Tricia’s projected path easily stays ahead of Emily unless:
🔸Emily wins the average
🔸AND wins multiple rounds

As long as Emily does 𝗻𝗼𝘁 out-perform Tricia in both the average 𝙖𝙣𝙙 round wins, she stays behind.

———

𝗖𝗔𝗥𝗟𝗘𝗘 𝗢𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗢 — 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 $𝟮𝟭𝟱,𝟭𝟲𝟭.𝟵𝟬

Carlee is only $𝟮,𝟰𝟳𝟮 ahead of Tricia as of now.

In Tricia’s winning scenario:

🔸Carlee must avoid winning the average
🔸And avoid multiple round wins

Any “typical” finish keeps Carlee well behind.

———

🎯 𝗕𝗢𝗧𝗧𝗢𝗠 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘

This is a 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 path — not a miracle.
If Tricia:
🏆 Wins the average
🔥 Wins 3 rounds
✨ Pulls 2nd in the other 3

…and if Kassie simply 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲, while the others avoid gigantic weeks…

👉 𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗜𝗔 𝗔𝗟𝗗𝗥𝗜𝗗𝗚𝗘 𝗕𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗘𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗟𝗗 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗜𝗢𝗡.

Analytics don’t lie but every single one of these ladies is talented and could take the win. It’s still going to be a horse race. 🔥🐎

I truly admire ALL of these ladies, but Tricia is a personal friend and I’m fully invested. 🙃

10/29/2025

With Equistat down and you need to know who to breed your horse to, we can help with our suggestion reports!

❓𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗖𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁❓
🔎 Traditional magic cross reports are 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲’𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲, but we dig deeper. Our report includes 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 that most overlook which makes predictions more accurate.

❓𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗮 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗼 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁❓
💡They represent the 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 in a pedigree—those with the highest number of unique(different) sires. In statistical terms, the more control you have over these independent coefficients, the better you can predict the dependent variable—like 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝗗.

And we don’t stop there! Our reports also factor in 𝗷𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗶𝗿𝗲𝘀, giving you the most comprehensive and accurate analysis for your breeding program.

💥 Make your breeding decisions smarter with Equi-Source—because 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆.

Comment or DM for more info!

10/01/2025

𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗮 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆. 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵.
Equi-Source bridges both: honoring the history while proving which crosses pay off in today’s arena.

𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱:
✅ Each horse measured by 𝟰 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 (Sire, Dam’s Sire, 2nd Dam’s Sire, 3rd Dam’s Sire).
✅ Aggregated across 15 horses to show how often certain bloodlines repeat.
✅ Percentages = % of Top 15 that carried that influence within 3 generations.
✅ Weight the 4 postions then show the average genetic contribution

🔑 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀
Dash Ta Fame/First Down Dash: Appears as sire or dam’s sire in majority of the list
Frenchmans Guy / Sun Frost: Often in dam’s sire or 2nd dam’s sire slot
Corona Cartel/Chicks Beduino: CC directly or through sons like Teller Corona.
Streakin Six: Through Tres Seis, Streakin La Jolla, or Streakin Six directly.
Epic Leader/Special Effort: Shows up in younger stallion lines (Epic, Sirocco).

🚀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆
Everyone talks about nicking. We actually measure it. With EquiSource, you can see exactly which ancestors in a pedigree are most predictive — and how often those patterns actually cash checks:

✅ Nearly 𝟯 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝟰 𝗡𝗙𝗥 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲𝘀 (𝟳𝟯%) have Dash Ta Fame/First Down Dash.
✅ Nearly 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗳 (𝟰𝟳%) have Frenchmans Guy/Sun Frost within 3 generations.
✅ 𝟰𝟬% carry Corona Cartel/Beduino directly.
✅ A full 𝟯𝟯% have Streakin Six.

These 4 factors repeat again and again in the 𝙘𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧.

09/30/2025

The Teton Ridge Dispersal Sale produced by Western Bloodstock LTD. sold a total of 116 horses for a combined $28 Million yesterday.

Out of the 116 total, 74 horses had a dam with an LTE > $100k. Only 3 had an LTE of $0.

31% of the horses sold were Barrel Racing horses for an average purchase price of $84,847

64% of the horses sold were Cutting horses for an average purchase price of $320,093

5% of the other horses (either Reining or Reined Cow Horse) sold for a combined average purchase price of $206,000

09/08/2025

✨ 𝗦𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝗶𝘁 𝗔𝗚𝗔𝗜𝗡!! Congratulations Molli Montgomery on her incredible win at The Gold Standard produced by Bizzy Bee Productions this past weekend! 🏆🔥

Even with two B- scores in the pedigree, this horse’s total A- proves that the 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀—paired with the right training 😉—can unlock potential and outperform expectations. That’s the magic of looking at all 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆, not just the surface.

I ran this horse’s 𝗣𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗲 through my proprietary 4-coefficient algorithm and the results were telling: 👀

➡️ 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲: 59.58 (A-)
➡️ 𝗦𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗲𝘅: 40.91 (A+)
➡️ 𝗗𝗮𝗺’𝘀 𝗦𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗲𝘅: 18.56 (A+)
➡️ 𝟮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗮𝗺’𝘀 𝗦𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗲𝘅: 0.00 (B-)
➡️ 𝟯𝗿𝗱 𝗗𝗮𝗺’𝘀 𝗦𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗲𝘅: 0.11 (B-)

Understanding the influence of each generation can help riders and breeders 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗱𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗳𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗿. 🧮 By applying data-driven insights to your daily breeding and training decisions, you give yourself the best chance to succeed in a sport where every second ⏱️ counts.

📊 Curious what 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 horse’s EquiSource Score is?DM me for a custom 𝗣𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗲 — and start making more confident, data-driven decisions.

08/25/2025

Another stallion using our Broodmare Suggestions Report to start their breeding career off with the best statistical advantage!

We are honored to be a part of his journey. ☺️

✨FREE BREEDING OPPORTUNITY✨

We are so excited to stand Jets Wingman to the public in 2026 that I wanted to start off by offering free or discounted breedings.

Jets Wingman is by the immortal Dash Ta Fame and out of Blazin Black Beauty- making him a full brother to Famous Lil Jet “Rollo” who has over $1.3 million in career earnings.

‼️FREE or Discounted Breedings to OWN Daughters‼️

•Frenchmans Guy
•Tres Seis
•A Streak Of Fling
•Fire Water Flit
•Dr Nick Bar
•Bully Bullion
•Designer Red
•Martha Six Moons
•Frenchmans Fabulous
•PYC Paint Your Wagon
•Ivory James
•PC Frenchmans Hayday
•Corona Cartel
•The Goodbye Lane
•Slick By Design
•Epic Leader
•Shawnee Bug Leo
•Traffic Guy
•Mares with LTE over $25k or produced greater than $50k

⚡️These crosses were decided by using his EquiSource Analysis of best broodmare crosses.

⚡️Limited number of Free/ Discounted Contracts Available.

Frozen Semen ONLY in 2026 to accommodate training schedule to prepare for his futurity year. There is a chance some cooled semen may be available, but likely frozen only.

✨Owned & Promoted by Andria Buchholz
📲 785•656•1534
📧JetsWingmanStallion@gmail.com

08/02/2025

In case you haven’t heard…Pink Buckle, Ruby Buckle and Riata Buckle nominations are due TODAY, 8/1. (12/1 with an additional $100 late charge)

Go to their website and login to nominate to Pink and Ruby Buckle or postmark by today. Riata Buckle does NOT have an online nomination option. (You will use the same exact login info for both Pink and Ruby Buckle)

If you have any issues, call them and leave a voicemail or email and as long as they get your message by today, you won’t be charged a late fee.

pinkbuckle.com
therubybuckle.com
riatabuckle.com