03/17/2020
Dear Friends,
The current Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) has really caused lots of concerns, stress, and anxiety in many people in the USA and rest of the world. Although I do believe we should have concerns and be cautious, in my opinion there is also too much hype. To put it in perspective, let me share some data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans or 1 in 6 people had been infected with the 2009 A H1N1 Virus and 10,000 Americans had died, by which time the vaccine was beginning to be widely distributed to the general public by several states. ("Swine flu has killed 10,000 Americans since April". Reuters. December 10, 2009.)
On January 15, 2010, the CDC released new estimate figures for swine flu, saying it had sickened about 55 million Americans and killed about 11,160 from April through mid-December. ("Swine flu death toll surpasses 11,000". NBC News. January 15, 2010.)
On February 12, 2010, the CDC released updated estimate figures for swine flu, reporting that, in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalized and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January. ("Swine flu sickened 57 million Americans". NBC News. February 12, 2010.)
On the CDC website, the following was stated:
A total of 17,889 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations were reported by FluSurv-NET sites between October 1, 2019 and March 7, 2020.
12,652 (70.7%) were associated with influenza A virus
5,140 (28.7%) with influenza B virus
50 (0.3%) with influenza A virus and influenza B virus co-infection
47 (0.3%) with influenza virus for which the type was not determined.
Among those with influenza A subtype information
3,391 (94.2%) were A(H1N1)pdm09 virus
207 (5.8%) were A(H3N2)
The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 61.6 per 100,000 population which is higher than all recent seasons at this time of year except for the 2017-18 season. Rates in children 0-4 years old and adults 18-49 years old are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing the rate reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
On January 11, 2019 CNBC published the following:
“An estimated 6.2 million to 7.3 million people in the United States have been sick with the flu since October, federal health officials said Friday. At least half of those people have sought medical care for their illness and 69,000 to 84,000 people have been hospitalized during the Oct. 1 to Jan. 5 period, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated.”
“This is the first time the CDC has provided such flu estimates for the 2018-2019 season. The estimates are extrapolated from data from about 27 million people, or about 8.5 percent of the U.S. population, federal health officials said.”
So how about the Coronavirus?
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
Total cases: 3,487
Total deaths: 68
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†
Travel-related - 205
Close contact - 214
Under Investigation - 3,068
Total Cases - 3,487
Friends, my conclusions after going over this data is that we need to remain calm. Expect that as testing becomes more available in our hospitals, the number of positive cases for COVID-19 will increase throughout the USA. With this, the mortality rate should definitely decrease. I could be wrong, but my prediction is that COVID-19 will have the same morbidity (The number of cases of a particular disease in a particular percentage of the population) and mortality (The total number of deaths over time caused by a particular disease) rates as the influenza (Flu) virus.
Did you know that over 80% of people that get infected with the Coronavirus have very mild or minimal symptoms and of those 80%, about 20% have such mild symptoms that they didn’t even realize they were ill at all? Of the 20% that have had more serious illness, 3% have died. The persons dying are the elderly (over age 80 years), those with other compromising illnesses, and those that are immunosuppressed (reduced activity or efficacy of the immune system).
As the weather improves and we approach the spring and summer, the number of cases is expected to drop considerably as with the flu and common cold viruses. Studies done many years ago showed that the "regular" coronavirus (which is one of the causes of the common cold) can survive on surfaces 30 times longer in places with a temperature of 6 degrees Celsius (42.8°F) compared to those where the temperature is 20 degrees Celsius (68°F) and humidity levels are high.
Again, I don’t understand the panic and hysteria over this. For those of you old enough to remember, there was a time without internet, social media, cell phones, computers, etc., and there were people with illnesses coming over without our IMMEDIATE knowledge, yet we never used to go crazy like today. Life went on, and we came together as a country to get over the situation. Let us be cautious and follow the recommendations from the CDC and our leaders, but let us also remain rational.
God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble. Psalm 46:1
Dr. Juan F. Villalona
Pediatric Gastroenterology of Richmond, PC
