02/21/2026
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HOW TO CREATE JOBS FOR THE WORLD'S 1.2 BILLION NEW WORKERS
The world moves on different wavelengths. Some are high-frequency shocksโwars, emerging technologies, market panicsโthat spike quickly and dominate our attention. Others are low-frequency forces that move slowly but relentlessly: demographics, globalization, water and food scarcity.
The high-frequency waves feel urgent. The low-frequency waves reshape the system. That is not to say crises donโt matter. But we cannot become casualties of the slow burn simply because the immediate crisis burns hotter or dominates more headlines. Ignore the slow burn long enough, and it becomes an inferno.
One of those forces is already in motion. Over the next 10 to 15 years, ๐.๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ in developing countries will come of working ageโa scale the world has never seen. On current trajectories, these economies are expected to generate only about ๐๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฃ๐จ๐๐ฌ over that same periodโleaving a gap of staggering proportions.
This is often framed as a development challenge, and it is. It is also an economic challenge. And it is increasingly a national security challenge. What was striking at the Davos conference was how easily this issue was brushed asideโovershadowed by the urgency of the issue du jour. It must not be ignored at coming forums like the G-7 and G-20.
If we invest early in people and connect them to productive work, this vast new generation can build lives of dignity and become ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ. If we do not, the consequences are predictable: pressure on institutions, irregular migration, conflict, and rising insecurity as young people reach for any path available to them.
The World Bank Group is pursuing the first path with urgency, bringing together public finance, knowledge, private capital, and risk management tools around a jobs strategy built on three pillars.
First, ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐โ๐๐จ๐ญ๐ก ๐ก๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐ก๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ. Without reliable power, transportation, education and healthcare, private investment and jobs never materialize. While the role of physical infrastructure is well understood, investment in people is equally critical. For example, a skills center in Bhubaneswar, India that is supported in partnership with the government and private sector trains nearly 38,000 people each year. Because the preparation is aligned with real market demand, nearly all graduates secure employmentโor go on to create jobs themselves, supported by engineering, manufacturing, and intellectual property training.
Second, ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ-๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ. Clear rules and predictable regulation reduce uncertainty and improve the ease of doing business. Jobs are generated when entrepreneurs and firms have the confidence to invest and expand. Public resources can help unlock that process, but job creation at scale depends on the private sectorโespecially micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises that generate most employment.
This leads to the third pillar: ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฅ๐. Through our private sector arms, we provide equity, financing, guarantees, and political risk insurance. One recent model is a trade finance guarantee supporting Banco do Brasil, which is unlocking roughly $700 million in affordable funding for Brazilian small businesses, particularly in agricultureโchanneling capital to the firms that drive local growth.
We focus where job potential is greatest, across the five sectors that consistently generate employment at scale: infrastructure and energy, agribusiness, primary healthcare, tourism, and value-added manufacturing.
This is not an abstract theory. It is grounded in evidence, country experience, and hard choices about where limited resources deliver the greatest impact. It is also not a zero-sum proposition.
By 2050, more than 85 percent of the worldโs population will live in developing countries. That represents not only the largest expansion of the global labor force in history, but the largest growth in future consumers, producers, and markets. Whether the motivations are development, altruism, returns, or security, there is a role and reward for putting energy and resources into this effort.
๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ benefit because jobs create income, stability, and dignity. They strengthen domestic demand and give young people a reason to invest in their future at home rather than look elsewhere.
๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ gain as well. As developing economies grow, they become stronger trading partners, more resilient supply-chain anchors, and more stable neighbors. Growth in those markets expands global demand and reduces the pressures that drive irregular migration and insecurityโoutcomes that carry real economic and political costs far beyond borders.
And for the ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซโboth financial institutions and operatorsโthis represents one of the largest opportunities of the coming decades. Rapid population growth means sustained demand for energy, food systems, healthcare, infrastructure, housing, and manufacturing.
The constraint has never been a lack of opportunity. It has been risk, both real and perceived. That is where development institutions can play a catalyzing role: financing infrastructure, supporting regulatory reform, and reducing risk.
If we get this right, the low-frequency forces shaping the worldโin this case demographicsโbecome engines of growth and stability rather than sources of volatility and risk. If we get it wrong, we will continue to chase crisesโreacting to outcomes that were visible years, even decades, in advance.
The choice is not whether these forces will shape the future. They will. The choice is whether we act early and bend them toward opportunityโor wait until they arrive as instability.
โ ๐๐บ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐บ ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐จ๐ข, ๐๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต, ๐๐ฐ๐ณ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐๐ณ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฑ
