Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

04/23/2026

When tensions rise, deterrence is no longer abstract.

Admiral James Foggo describes how signals are sent in real time, where actions, not words, shape decisions in the Gulf. The response to threats is deliberate, visible, and designed to leave no ambiguity.

From naval operations to commercial shipping routes, the message is clear. Escalation is a choice. And so are its consequences.

“We’re not messing around.”

Full episode hosted by CEPA Senior Fellow Jason Israel, out now at the link below.

04/23/2026

Europe’s push to set global rules for Big Tech is losing momentum.

A year after the Digital Markets Act was expected to spread worldwide, countries like the UK, Japan, and South Korea are pulling back, while US courts have limited major antitrust efforts.

Jack Galloway and William Echikson articulate that the shift is driven by the race for AI growth and pressure from Washington, leaving even European officials questioning whether the DMA can curb Big Tech’s dominance.

Brussels is still enforcing the law with fines, but with global alignment weakening and the US turning toward protecting its tech sector, the Brussels Effect now faces a serious test of its staying power.

04/23/2026

“Blockading the Strait of Hormuz would be anathema to 250 years of American history and US foreign policy.” Steven Horrell

US move may increase economic pressure on Tehran but there are limits to what it can accomplish

04/23/2026

“Europe’s commercial activity lags” Anda Bologa

At ITER Russian and Western scientists still work together—slowly

04/23/2026

"Drones are desirable because 'there is limited infrastructure to support human presence.'" Jan Kallberg

Drones are key in the Arctic, where NATO is strengthening its presence. But the cold wreaks havoc with batteries and parts, and hiding is hard.

04/23/2026

CEPA is delighted to welcome Dr. Kathleen Hicks, Ambassador Robert C. O'Brien, and Dr. Kiana Aran to the International Leadership Council, at a moment when transatlantic security demands and strategic technology competition have never been more consequential.

Dr. Kathleen Hicks served as the 35th United States Deputy Secretary of Defense and has held other senior defense roles including Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. She currently holds appointments at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, and Johns Hopkins University's Kissinger Center for Global Affairs.

Ambassador Robert C. O'Brien served as the 27th United States National Security Advisor and previously as the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs. He is Co-founder and Chairman of American Global Strategies.

Dr. Kiana Aran is a globally recognized biotechnology innovator, entrepreneur, and professor at the University of California, San Diego. Her pioneering work at the intersection of biology and technology has earned international acclaim and established her as a leading force shaping the next generation of the biotech ecosystem.

The ILC is co-chaired by former German Minister of Defence Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and former US National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. (Ret.) H.R. McMaster. We look forward to the insight and experience these new members bring to CEPA's work.

04/23/2026

We're pleased to welcome Ilya Timtchenko as a Fellow with CEPA's Transatlantic Defense and Security Program.

Ilya is a seasoned analyst focused on Eastern Europe. He is the Founder and CEO of HawkNation LLC, a consulting firm supporting public and private sector clients with Ukraine-focused strategy, resilience, and growth initiatives, and a board member at First Aid of the Soul, a nonprofit providing trauma-informed mental health support to Ukrainians. His writing has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The Washington Post, The Hill, The National Interest, Newsweek, and others.

We look forward to his contributions to CEPA's work on transatlantic defense and security.

04/22/2026

“There are so many security gaps in terms of situational awareness.” Federico Borsari

Drones are key in the Arctic, where NATO is strengthening its presence. But the cold wreaks havoc with batteries and parts, and hiding is hard.

04/22/2026

Since Australia introduced a social media ban for under-16s in late 2025, governments around the world have been racing to respond. Some have introduced mandatory age verification. Others are strengthening parental consent requirements. Others are focusing on digital literacy or platform-specific rules. No two approaches are the same.

The debate is genuinely contested, but 371 privacy and security experts signed an open letter in March warning that enforcement mechanisms threaten privacy and freedom of expression. Even Australia's eSafety Commissioner has conceded the ban has been difficult to enforce and has yet to show measurable results.

In a new report, Jenna Presta maps the status of social media age restrictions across the globe and examines where the debate currently stands. The picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

04/22/2026

On April 15, Russia finally acknowledged responsibility for shooting down Azerbaijani Airlines flight 8243 in December 2024, killing 38 people. The timing was not coincidental.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's influence in the South Caucasus has declined sharply. Azerbaijan signed strategic agreements with the EU and Washington. Armenia advanced the TRIPP trade corridor, explicitly designed to cut out both Russia and Iran. Moscow watched from the sidelines as the region reoriented westward.

Fuad Shahbazov warns that the Iran war has given Russia an opening to reverse that. By mending ties with Azerbaijan over the AZAL tragedy while simultaneously threatening Armenia over its pro-EU orientation and Russian business pressures, Moscow is recalibrating on both fronts at once. The Kremlin's optimism that regional uncertainty has buried TRIPP may be premature. But Armenia and Azerbaijan should be clear-eyed about what Russia is actually doing.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

04/22/2026

“Ukraine is a gold mine for democracy, being handed to the U.S. on a platter.” Ilya Timtchenko

Ukraine is a goldmine for democracy being handed to the United States on a platter.

04/22/2026

Germany's Foreign Minister just revived one of the EU's most intractable debates: should the bloc move from unanimity to qualified majority voting in foreign policy? The argument is sound. The hard part is getting there.

Jurek Wille and Friedrich Conradi make clear that before asking smaller member states to surrender their veto, Berlin must define what acceptable German leadership actually looks like, within the Cabinet, with the German public, and with its neighbors. So far, there is little sign it is seriously wrestling with the question.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.