07/11/2025
This is a seminal study from nearly 15 years ago that still doesn’t guide enough people’s thinking when planning training programmes.
🧠 Study Summary — Nielsen et al., 2012
Design: Prospective cohort study of 873 novice runners followed for 1 year, monitoring training volume, injury incidence & progression rate via digital training logs.
Key Findings: Runners who increased weekly mileage by >30% within 2 weeks had a 64–128% higher injury risk.
Injuries were distance-related (load accumulation rather than acute overload):
→ Achilles tendinopathy
→ Patellofemoral pain
→ Iliotibial band syndrome
→ Plantar fasciitis
Injuries didn’t appear immediately — often lagging 3–6 weeks behind the training spike.
Cardiovascular adaptations outpaced tissue adaptation → “fit but fragile” phase.
Take-home: Gradual, progressive load beats aggressive growth.
Tissues need time to catch up with fitness.