12/13/2025
Effects of Inflation on Payment Behavior in the Medical Billing Industry in 2025
In 2025, inflation significantly strained patient payment behavior in the U.S. medical billing industry, primarily through elevated medical inflation (outpacing general inflation) and rising out-of-pocket (OOP) costs. General CPI inflation hovered around 3-4%, but healthcare-specific costs rose faster: medical care services increased ~4.2% year-over-year in mid-2025, while commercial group market trends reached ~8-9.7%. Global medical trends were even higher at ~10.4%, with U.S. employer-sponsored plans seeing substantial hikes.
Key drivers included:
Higher provider costs (labor, supplies, drugs) are passed to patients via high-deductible plans.
Increased utilization of behavioral health, specialty drugs (e.g., GLP-1s), and post-pandemic deferred care.
This led to notable shifts in payment behavior:
Increased Difficulty Paying Bills
—over 53% of Americans struggled with unexpected bills >$1,000 (or >$600 for lower-income/credit groups.
~86% reported rising prices made managing bills harder, with 30% draining savings and others using high-interest credit.
Delays and Non-Payment
Patient delays rose due to confusion (71% confused by bills) and affordability. Bad debt increased as providers shifted to upfront collections, point-of-service payments, and aggressive policies, turning manageable balances into uncollectible debt.
Higher Medical Debt and Collections
~36% of households had medical debt; 32-67% found inflation worsened bill payment (up from prior years). More bills entered collections, with routine visits contributing more to debt than hospitalizations.
Avoidance of Care
~One-thirddelayed/skipped care due to costs, exacerbating future expenses and bad debt cycles
Provider Impacts
Hospitals faced thin margins (e.g., 2.1% average), leading to more patient financing roles. Bad debt rose from self-pay-after-insurance (up to 57% of cases), prompting adoption of digital tools, AI analytics, and flexible plans to predict/recover payments.
Overall, 2025 saw a "triple whammy" of medical inflation, consumer inflation, and OOP shifts, eroding affordability and pushing patients toward delays, partial payments, or default—increasing industry bad debt while providers innovated with low/no-interest plans and transparent billing.
Forecast for 2026
Medical cost trends are projected to remain elevated in 2026, with limited relief from deflationary forces. Forecasts indicate:
U.S. healthcare costs rising ~9.6% (slightly down from 9.7% in 2025 but still high).
Global averages >10%.
Employer premiums up 6-9%.
Inflators persist: new technologies (74% of insurers cite as top driver), pharmacy/outpatient pressures, behavioral health (10-20% trend), and provider consolidation/labor costs.
Payment behavior is likely to face continued pressure:
Worsening Affordability and Delays
Premium/deductible hikes (e.g., Medicare Part B premium to ~$206.50) will strain households, leading to more delays, skipped care, and bad debt. Expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies could spike individual market premiums 18%+, shifting more costs to patients.
Rising Debt and Collections → Without major interventions, medical debt burdens (already affecting millions) may grow, with patients relying more on credit/plans. Providers may intensify upfront collections and digital engagement to mitigate.
Potential Mitigations
Biosimilars, AI for efficiency/fraud detection, and outcomes-based drug models could temper some costs. Flexible/no-interest plans and preventive focus may help, but structural issues (e.g., fee-for-service rewarding volume) suggest persistent challenges.
Industry Adaptations
Expect more predictive analytics for non-payment risks, personalized payment options, and outsourcing to reduce bad debt. However, if utilization and prices don't moderate, 2026 could see the sharpest employer cost jumps in over a decade.
In summary, while 2025 highlighted inflation-driven delays and rising bad debt, 2026 forecasts sustained high trends—likely prolonging cautious payment behaviors unless offset by policy changes (e.g., drug negotiations effective 2026) or broader cost controls. Providers and payers will increasingly prioritize patient-centric financing to maintain collections amid affordability strains.